Nuclear power had its commercial roots in the 1950’s, touted from its birth as the “answer to humanity’s energy needs.” However, neither was its full promise realized nor did nuclear power continue its ascendancy; the 1979 incident at Three Mile Island effectively stopped commercial growth of nuclear in the U.S. Moreover, the 1986 disaster in Chernobyl induced worldwide fear of nuclear power.
Despite these incidents, nuclear power has remained important both in the U.S. and abroad as an energy source, and more importantly, it has seen greater support in recent years. In the U.S., utilities, investors, and the government are beginning to consider nuclear power again. The rest of this report details in what capacity they are doing so and how this could change the domestic nuclear job market.
Recent Maneuvers: The Industry Revisits Nuclear
2007 was a milestone year for the nuclear industry. Four companies—NRG Energy, NuStart, Dominion, and Duke Energy—submitted full Combined Operating License (COL) applications, the starting point with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for constructing new plants. A fifth company, UniStar Nuclear, has submitted a partial application (expected to be finished in early 2008) [1].
These applications are of paramount importance to future applications, as they are the first for several new baseline plant designs. In the NRC’s new application process, plant designs are first submitted for approval by vendors, after which the various generation companies adapt these basic designs for their needs and submit separate applications. Currently, two of four proposed reactor designs—the ABWR by General Electric and AP1000 by Westinghouse—have been approved by the NRC; all COL applications based on other designs would be contingent on reactor approval [1].
Given these submittals and the promise they provide, many within the nuclear industry feel 2008 will be even more flourishing. Another ten companies are expected to submit COL applications. Together with 2007 applications, this would amount to 33 new nuclear reactors in the U.S., roughly a 33 percent increase to the current fleet.
Investors: Money Where their Mouth Is
Certainly, a driving force behind any resurgence in nuclear construction will be support on Wall Street. While much skepticism still exists, there are vocal enthusiasts among financiers for several reasons. The following quotes elucidate some of these viewpoints.
Fitch Ratings Ltd. noted in its March 13, 2006 Wholesale Power Market Update,
High natural gas prices, continuing constraints on rail deliveries of coal, and longer term concerns about carbon dioxide emissions and a new mercury rule have made fuel diversity a more pressing priority on a national and state level. It is no longer a matter of debate whether there will be new nuclear plants…the discussion has shifted to predictions of how many, where and when. [2]
Financial power Merrill Lynch has reported, “We view large nuclear utilities as beneficiaries of the rising cost profile of coal generation and potential future carbon reduction … [We] believe that nuclear utilities represent a free option on potential future carbon-reduction legislation…” [3].
That coal costs have continued to rise has caused many to revisit nuclear as an environmentally-friendly tool, and with increased public support for stricter emissions standards, nuclear will continue to be one, if not the only, practical solution for large-scale energy production.
Nuclear Politics – Progress on the Back of an Elephant (or Donkey?)
To quote the recent Nuclear News, “…[The] general belief is that another Republican president would either accept or encourage new reactors, while a Democrat would oppose them…” [1]. This general view has been held widely within the nuclear community, but upon looking at the candidates, is it really clear a Democrat would nullify the near-term future of nuclear? A recent NEI release [4] offers an answer to this question.
Senator Hillary Clinton is “agnostic” toward nuclear power and is not against it if solutions to waste and financing issues are found. Senator Barack Obama is “open-minded” about the nuclear question and echoes Clinton’s concerns about waste. The only major player against nuclear was former Senator Edwards who has since dropped out of the race. The leading Republican candidate Senator John McCain has said, “The idea that nuclear power should play no role in our future energy mix is an unsustainable position.”
It would seem as long as a candidate is not openly averse toward a nuclear rebirth, than we in the industry should not worry excessively; however, given the Democratic majority in Congress, either Democrat could succumb to party pressures. Only Obama would have personal reasons for remaining at worst a neutral player—his Illinois is a leading nuclear market.
The People: Powering the Renaissance
While the future of nuclear is by no means set in stone, to ensure the industry lands running, the nuclear workforce has to be developed and ready for the challenge. An old adage says the nuclear workforce is comprised of individuals ready to retire; while not entirely true (average age is 48), the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) notes 27 percent of personnel could retire by 2011, leaving a gaping void in labor and knowledge [5].
What exactly are the prospects for new nuclear engineers? If there are to be no new nuclear plants, that exodus of retirees will leave nearly 20,000 jobs to fill (not all engineering) [6]. Additionally, the NRC looks to hire 600 new engineering staff, most likely to accommodate the workload associated with incoming licensee applications [6]. If NRC-approval of recent applications becomes imminent, we can expect utilities also to undertake massive hiring—which would likely tax the outgoing pool of the 29 U.S. nuclear engineering programs (of which there had been 38 some 30 years ago!).
Conclusion
In summary, it is impossible to quantify exactly the effect this nuclear “renaissance” will have on the nuclear job market, but what is clear is that it is already affecting it.
References
1. Blake, E. M., “Renaissance Now?”, Nuclear News. January 2008
2. Fitch Ratings, Special Report: Wholesale Power Market Update. March 13, 2006
3. http://nei.org/newsandevents/wallstreet/
4. Nuclear Energy Insight, publication of the Nuclear Energy Institute. May 2007
5. Howard, Angie, “Achieving Excellence in Human Performance: Nuclear Energy Training and Education,” American Nuclear Society. Conference on Nuclear Training and Education, Jacksonville, Florida. February 5, 2007
6. Washington, E. H., “Workforce issues big challenge for NRC”, Inside N.R.C., 2. November 12, 2007.
No comments:
Post a Comment